High international oil price shock, the future trend of who dominates the

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High international oil price shock, the future trend of who dominates the

Date Added: November 16, 2009 04:31:16 AM

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The recent high international oil prices, consolidation trends, November 12, the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude for delivery in December futures closed at 76.94 U.S. dollars a barrel. This is nearly a month time, the international oil prices to 75-79 U.S. dollars yet another manifestation of high volatility. What is the reason to promote high international oil prices, fluctuations in oil prices to the future?

    The industry believes that the oil market and the financial markets are getting closer, the current international oil prices is not the direct cause of supply and demand fundamentals, but rather changes in the dollar, the dollar depreciation of U.S. dollar-denominated oil prices rise, In this process, the factors that speculation intensified.

    Oil City and the financial market "binding"

    According to the East oil and gas network monitoring, from October 21 to November 11, the international benchmark price of WTI crude oil has fluctuated in the 79 U.S. dollars, during which has touched 80 U.S. dollars. Zhong Jian, chief analyst at the East oil and gas networks think that a sharp rise in international oil prices, and depreciation of the dollar and the speculative hedge fund to preserve and increase the buying of oil futures have a great relationship.

    October 6 when the dollar started another round of devaluation, the dollar index fell to 76.7 from the time October 20 to 75.5, speculative funds from October 6 onwards to buy big and more from the week The 50000 hands increased to October 20 the week of 10 million contracts during the same period, international oil prices from October 6 to 70 U.S. dollars up to October 20 around the time of 79 U.S. dollars.

    Not only that, when the depreciation of the dollar is gaining momentum October 20, after the suspension of the 75 indicators in the vicinity, speculative fund buying operations stopped more than 10 million contracts, the corresponding international oil prices climbed to near 79 U.S. dollars later, stopped at this price in the vicinity. International oil prices and the depreciation of the dollar limit-state, as well as the operation of speculative funds is very consistent behavior.

    Zhong Jian analysis, precisely because of this reason, we have reason to believe that the momentum of the dollar can be a slight pause, even stage, speculative funds will also be phased end to buy more operations. The current position to buy more than 10 million lots of speculative funds, will also sell the not too distant time, oil prices turned down on profit-taking Er Shi.

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